Virginia: Top Tipping Point State in the U.S.A.
If you are a numbers and polling geek like me then your new favorite site is www.fivethirtyeight.com.Â This is a site created by math and polling wizards Nate Silver and Sean Quinn. Real Clear Politics has always collected polling data and averaged results.
However, these guys know their stuff.Â They have some really fancy regression analyses, weighting and stepped analyses that take polling data from around the country and run it through some complex systems to derive more meaningful and valuable information about what is happening.
One of my favorite stats they have been keeping is called “Tipping Point States.” Tipping Point States refers to a formula which they created which analyzes likely outcomes in all 50 states and then determines which state, if the result changes, is mostly likely to change the outcome of the entire race.
Today, for the first time, Virginia moved to the top of this list, just over Florida.
If there was a Tipping Point COUNTY in the United States – you are probably living in it right now (plus our polls close at 7!).
P.S. Also check out their U.S. Senate probability tables (30% shot at 60 seats), Return on Investment Index (VA #6), and note you can sort their articles by “Virginia” related if you want.Â Very cool stuff.