Chuck Todd: If NOVA Hits 60%, Game Over
NBC political analyst Chuck Todd provided some analysis today regarding an MSNBC Poll that came out today on the Virginia race.Â Here are his thoughts.
*** Virginia is for lovers of a close race: The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll has McCain ahead by three points in Virginia, 47%-44%. To see the difference between winning and losing in the Old Dominion, check out these numbers in the poll: Obama wins Northern Virginia by a 55%-37% margin, while McCain wins the crucial Hampton Roads area by 48%-44%. But in the recent Washington Post/ABC survey, which had Obama leading in Virginia by three points among likely voters, Obama was at 59% in Northern Virginia and was up 50%-45% in Hampton Roads. This tells you that if Obama does get to 60% in NoVa, he just might win the state even if he loses every other region. But Hampton Roads may very well be the ballgame in the state. By the way, itâ€™s worth noting in the TODAY/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll that 58% of undecided voters in the presidential contest are backing Democratic Senate candidate Mark Warner, who leads Republican Jim Gilmore 61%-28% in the poll. Can Obama reel in more of those Warner voters? Will Warner risk alienating any of those wavering presidential Democrats by using his political capital to campaign heavily for Obama in places where Obama isn’t doing well by Warner is?
Remember our friends in Arlington County are pushing for 80% turnout and 80% performance.Â The City of Alexandria will clear 60%.Â Loudoun and Prince William will be close.Â This race comes down to Fairfax County folks.
Get out and knock some doors.